The Asian Monetary Policy Forum (AMPF) convened for the fifth year in Singapore on 25 May 2018. The meeting marked 10 years after the Global Financial Crisis and two decades since the Asian Financial Crisis. As in past fora, this flagship event offered a valuable platform for globally prominent academics, policymakers and financial practitioners to exchange views and share insights on the pertinent economic, financial and monetary policy issues confronting Asia.

Joint Dinner for ABFER and AMPF

A joint dinner on 24 May 2018 marked the close of the annual Asian Bureau of Finance and Economic Research (ABFER) conference, and the official opening of the AMPF. The dinner featured “A Conversation with Mr Timothy F. Geithner” moderated by Sir Howard Davies, Chairman, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Council Member of ABFER. Mr Geithner, President of Warburg Pincus, shared with the audience some of the lessons from the Global Financial Crisis and his views on the effectiveness of the tools and regulatory reforms put in place following the crisis.

Opening Address by Dr Tao Zhang, Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund

Dr Zhang  highlighted the key economic issues facing Asia at the present juncture of global economic strength and emphasised the importance of building buffers to manage future crises. At the same time, he called on central banks to be vigilant over the incipient rise in inflation and to make greater efforts towards financial inclusion.

Commissioned Paper and Discussions

Dr Hyun Song Shin (3.29 MB), Economic Adviser and Head of Research at the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), presented the commissioned paper on “Gauging Procyclicality and Financial Vulnerability in Asia through the BIS Banking and Financial Statistics” (1.83 MB), co-authored with Dr Stefan Avdjiev and Ms Bat-el Berger, also at the BIS. Dr Shin demonstrated the usefulness of the BIS’ international banking and financial statistics, including data on banks’ balance sheet, in serving as early warning indicators of financial vulnerabilities. He also examined the role of cross-border financial flows in accentuating the procyclicality of the financial system. The commissioned paper was discussed by Markus K. Brunnermeier (728.4 KB), Edwards S. Sanford Professor of Economics and Director of the Bendheim Center for Finance at Princeton University and Dr Linda Goldberg (815.1 KB), Senior Vice President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The discussion was chaired by Bernard Yeung, Dean and Stephen Riady Distinguished Professor in Finance and Strategic Management, National University of Singapore and President of ABFER.

Policy Note on Globalisation

The AMPF this year included a new session, which featured policy notes on the theme of globalisation, moderated by Andrew Rose, B.T. Rocca Jr. Professor, Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley. Against the current backdrop of challenges confronting the multilateral trading system, Douglas Irwin (3.12 MB), John French Professor of Economics, Dartmouth College presented on “Trump Trade Policy: A Frustrating Return to the 1980s”. The other speaker in the session, Alan Taylor (8.42 MB), Professor of Economics and Finance, University of California, Davis reviewed the academic literature on “The Trilemma Then and Now” and cautioned against prematurely dismissing the relevance of the open economy trilemma.

Panel Discussion

AMPF 2018 culminated with a panel discussion on “Front-Line Perspectives on the Asian and Global Financial Crises” among three distinguished current and former policymakers: Mr Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Deputy Prime Minister of Singapore, Coordinating Minister for Economic and Social Policies and Chairman of MAS; Mr Timothy Geithner, President of Warburg Pincus; and Lord Adair Turner, Chairman of the Governing Board, Institute for New Economic Thinking. The session was moderated by Steven Davis, William H. Abbott Distinguished Service Professor of International Business and Economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution. During the session, the panelists discussed the causes of the crises, the efficacy of the remedies undertaken in response to these events, as well as the role of central banks in preventing and mitigating future financial crises.

Click here for details on all AMPF events.