Staff Papers
Published Date: 01 July 2005

Two Decades of Macromodelling at the MAS.

MAS Staff Paper No. 39, July 2005 - By Jared J Enzler, Christopher W Murphy, Ng Heng Tiong, Angela Phang and Edward Robinson


This paper provides an overview of the macromodelling work undertaken at the Economic Policy Department (EPD).  EPD has been engaged in macromodelling since at least 1986.  Our efforts in this area were sparked by the increasing recognition of the need for a quantitative tool to assess the macroeconomic impact of policy options on the Singapore economy.  The first flagship macroeconomic model, Singmod, became fully operational in 1990.  Singmod is essentially a structural model incorporating both short-run Keynesian and long-run neoclassical properties.  It served as the Department's main tool for forecasting and policy simulations throughout the 1990s.  In February 2000, the Monetary Model of Singapore (MMS) was officially launched and has now become the main model for forecasting and policy analysis.  With the introduction of the MMS and the complementary role played by Singmod and other sectoral forecasting tools, quantitative work in EPD has become more rigorous and the models have come to play an integral part in macroeconomic policy analysis in the MAS.  This paper also discusses the qualities that EPD strives to build into our models to ensure their continued relevance to policy-making in the MAS.