Fertility & The Real Exchange Rate.
We use a quinquennial data set covering 87 countries between 1975 and 2005 to investigate the relationship between fertility and the real effective exchange rate.Theoretically a country experiencing a decline in its fertility rate can be expected to have higher savings, lower investment, a current account surplus, and accordingly a real depreciation. We test and confirm this hypothesis, controlling for a host of potential determinants such as PPP deviations and the Balassa-Samuelson effect. We find a statistically significant and robust link between fertility and the exchange rate. Our point-estimate is that a decline in the fertility rate of one child per woman is associated with a depreciation of approximately .15% in the real effective exchange rate.
MAS Staff Paper No. 57, February 2020 - By Joseph Goh, Heedon Kang, Zhi Xing Koh, Jin Way Lim, Cheng Wei Ng, Galen Sher, and Chris Yao
MAS Staff Paper No. 56, November 2019 - By Chioh Wenn Sheng, Chua Bing Kiat, Andrew Ang, Fan Jia Rong and Brandon Sim
MAS Staff Paper No. 55, January 2017 - By Naohisa Hirakata, Yosuke Kido, and Jie Liang Thum