ABSTRACT

This paper examines alternative measures of core inflation for Singapore over the period 2004 to 2024. These include MAS Core Inflation, the CPI excluding fresh food and energy, a measure down-weighting volatile CPI components, and various trimmed means. Evaluation criteria include the volatility of the measures, and tests of their forward-looking information. The trimmed means and the volatility-adjusted series are found to be the least volatile, and better predictors of future inflation. The paper recommends adding a trimmed mean and the volatility-adjusted measure to a suite of core measures used by the MAS in its macroeconomic analysis.

Suggested citation:
Roger, Scott, and Wei Xiong. 2025. "Measuring Core Inflation for Monetary Policy in Singapore." MAS Staff Paper, no. 2025/1